Abstract: Based on the carbon accounting methods provided from The Guidelines for the Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Trial) and The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, combined with relevant data from the statistical yearbook and environmental sanitation planning of Shanghai, the direct carbon emissions of domestic waste in Shanghai from 2008 to 2035 were calculated. In 2021, the carbon emissions from domestic waste treatment reached 4.62 million tons of CO2e, with dry waste incineration accounted for 84% of the carbon emissions. According to the planned output and expected characteristics, the carbon emissions would continue to increase. As the continuous increase in the content of plastics in dry waste was an important reason for the increase of direct carbon emissions from domestic waste treatment, in the absence of considering the application of CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage) technology, measures such as policy guidance and scenario optimization should be taken to ensure that less plastics would be incinerated. Taking the peak of direct carbon emissions reached in 2025 (with a peak of 5.83 million tons of CO2e) as an example, the control values for the per capita domestic waste output and the plastic content in dry waste in typical years were calculated.

Key words: domestic waste, carbon emission, carbon accounting, carbon dioxide peaking, Shanghai