Abstract: Demographic factors， economic development level， residents’ consumption level and urban construction were selected as the factors affecting the MSW production in Shanghai， and the data of MSW production and various influencing factors from 2011 to 2020 were adopted. Through grey correlation analysis， it was concluded that the number of tourists from foreign provinces and cities to Shanghai， per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure were the main influencing factors of MSW production in Shanghai. The GM （1，1） model was established to predict the MSW production in Shanghai. Under the impact of waste classification， The MSW production in Shanghai in 2022 and 2023 were predicted to be 9.723×106 t and 1.012×107 t respectively， which provided scientific guidance for the reduction and total amount control of MSW in Shanghai.

Key words: domestic waste； production； influence factor； garbage classification； GM （1, 1） model