Abstract: To elucidate the intrinsic driving mechanisms and reveal the dynamic evolution of residents’ willingness to participate in waste separation, Shanghai was taken as a case. By integrating longitudinal tracking with dynamic simulation, it employed targeted questionnaire surveys, Geodetector method, and system dynamics modeling to identify key influencing factors and their interaction effects, as well as to simulate the improvement effectiveness of different intervention measures. Results showed that one year after classification policy implementation, residents’ satisfaction increased by 2.7%, whereas their willingness to participate decreased by 5.4%. The key influencing factors of participation willingness exhibited temporal heterogeneity. Before the implementation of the classification policy, factors such as classification attitude, public publicity, classification recycling methods, classification time consumption and classification refinement were the main influencing factors. After the policy implementation, the community waste collection satisfaction of the impact factors soared and showed a significant interaction effect with classification recycling methods. Policy simulation reveals that refined waste separation exerts a negative effect on residents’ willingness to participate. However, improving community norms and facility convenience produces positive compensatory effects. The research is aimed at revealing the impact of institutional changes on residents’ willingness to participate, and optimizing policy intervention measures.

Key words: domestic waste separation, public participation, policy change, policy simulation, community management