Abstract: Under the dual context of tightening environmental standards and preferential subsidy retrenchment in the electricity market, enhancing the economic robustness of denitrification systems in municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration power plants is of paramount importance. Based on life cycle cost (LCC) theory, this study develops a dynamic economic quantification model for the SNCR-SCR integrated denitrification system. The model specifically incorporates the unique operating conditions of MSW flue gas, such as high corrosiveness, alkali metal poisoning, and steam-extraction reheating, spanning initial investment, routine operation, unplanned shutdown penalty costs, and hazardous waste disposal. A project with a capacity of 2×1 000 t/d was selected for empirical research. The dynamic accounting and 10 000 Monte Carlo uncertainty simulations demonstrated that the integrated process exhibited superior cost-effectiveness within its life cycle under the 50 mg/m3 ultra-low emission constraint, with the expected mean of the dynamic net cost of denitration per unit of waste was 23.3 RMB/t. Global sensitivity analysis indicated that the policy subsidy retention coefficient (variance contribution of 48.6%) and the raw inlet NOx concentration (variance contribution of 19.0%)were the critical driving factors of the system’s economic robustness. Accordingly, a “dual-dimensional” robust control zone was defined, in terms of technical working condition, the inlet NOx concentration should be stabilized between 240 mg/m3 and 360 mg/m3 via front-end pre-sorting and combustion optimization. While in terms of policy-market, the compliant subsidy price should be secured above 0.014 RMB/kWh. Finally, the proposed synergistic optimization framework integrated catalyst life extension, system energy conservation, and intelligent control, which would be projected to reduce the annual operating cost by approximately 13.7%-14.4%. This study provides reference value for advancing refined asset dynamic management in the traditional waste-to-energy industry.

Key words: waste incineration, SNCR-SCR combined denitrification, life cycle cost, economic assessment, catalyst management