垃圾分类背景下上海市生活垃圾产生量的影响因素研究及预测

环境卫生工程

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垃圾分类背景下上海市生活垃圾产生量的影响因素研究及预测

上海市资源利用和垃圾分类管理事务中心

收稿日期:2022-04-14 修回日期:2022-07-06 接受日期:2022-08-16

Study on influencing factors and prediction of MSW production in Shanghai under the background of Garbage classification

Shanghai Resource Utilization and Garbage Classification Management Affairs Center

Received:2022-04-14 Revised:2022-07-06 Accepted:2022-08-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文选取人口因素、经济发展水平、居民消费水平、城市建设情况等方面作为影响上海市生活垃圾产生量的因素，利用2011-2020年生活垃圾产生量及各影响因素的数据，通过灰色关联度分析得出外省市来沪旅游人数、人均可支配收入及人均消费支出是上海市生活垃圾产生量的主要影响因素。建立GM（1,1）模型对上海市生活垃圾产生量进行预测，在考虑垃圾分类的影响下预测出2022年和2023年上海市生活垃圾产生量分别为972.3万吨和1012.3万吨，为上海市生活垃圾减量及总量控制提供科学指导。

关键词: 生活垃圾产生量, 影响因素, 垃圾分类, GM（1,1）模型

Abstract:

In this paper, demographic factors, economic development level, residents' consumption level and urban construction are selected as the factors affecting the MSW production in Shanghai, and the data of MSW production and various influencing factors from 2011 to 2020 are adopted. Through grey correlation analysis, it is concluded that the number of tourists from foreign provinces and cities to Shanghai, per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure are the main influencing factors of MSW production in Shanghai. The GM (1,1) model was established to predict the MSW production in Shanghai. Under the impact of Garbage classification, The MSW production in Shanghai in 2022 and 2023 was predicted to be 972.3 million tons and 1012.3 million tons respectively, which provides scientific guidance for the reduction and total amount control of MSW in Shanghai.

Key words: MSW production, influence factor, Garbage classification, GM (1,1) model

牛欢欢. 垃圾分类背景下上海市生活垃圾产生量的影响因素研究及预测 [J]. 环境卫生工程, 0, (): 0-.

Niu Huanhuan. Study on influencing factors and prediction of MSW production in Shanghai under the background of Garbage classification[J]. Environmental Sanitation Engineering, 0, (): 0-.

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